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Uncertainty Wednesday: Continuous Random Variables (Cont’d)
Albert Wenger – Jul 19, 2017
Last time in Uncertainty Wednesdays, I introduced continuous random variables and gave an example of a bunch of random variables following a Normal Distribution. Now in the picture you can see two values, denoted as μ and σ^2, for the [...] Read more
Be Careful of What You Wish For: Token/ICO Edition
Albert Wenger – Jul 17, 2017
I have written several posts on token sales and ICOs already, including some “Thoughts on Regulating ICOs” and “Optimal Token Sales.” With the continued fundraising success of new projects, here are some observations on investment terms and their potential implications [...] Read more
Uncertainty Wednesday: Continuous Random Variables
Albert Wenger – Jul 12, 2017
So far in Uncertainty Wednesdays we have only dealt with models and random variables that had a discrete probability distribution. Often in fact we had only two possible states or signal values. There are lots of real world problems though [...] Read more
Assessment of Trump Presidency?
Albert Wenger – Jul 10, 2017
We are rapidly approaching the first half year of Trump’s Presidency. I am genuinely curious whether there is anyone attempting a cogent defense of the record so far. If you have read something you think qualifies, please link to it [...] Read more
Individual Courage and Lasting Change in Tech
Albert Wenger – Jul 7, 2017
The women who have come forward in tech in the last few weeks, including Susan Fowler, Niniane Wang and Sarah Kunst have shown great courage. Their courage will be the catalyst for lasting change, provided all of us turn this [...] Read more
Uncertainty Wednesday: Variance
Albert Wenger – Jul 5, 2017
In last week’s Uncertainty Wednesday, I introduced the expected value EV of a random variable X. We saw that EV(X) is not a measure of uncertainty. The hypothetical investments I had described all had the same expected value of 0. [...] Read more
Happy 4th of July: Celebrating Truths
Albert Wenger – Jul 4, 2017
I am spending this 4th of July in Germany, having visited my parents and friends from growing-up near Nuremberg for the last few days. It is late here now and I am seeing all the Happy 4th wishes from the [...] Read more
ChangeX: Impact As A Service
Albert Wenger – Jun 30, 2017
Susan and I have been longtime supporters of the wonderful ChangeX platform: ChangeX helps spread social innovation across communities. This week ChangeX introduced a new model for donors, which they are calling Impact as a Service (IaaS). This is a [...] Read more
Uncertainty Wednesday: Expected Value
Albert Wenger – Jun 28, 2017
In today’s Uncertainty Wednesday we start to explore the properties of random variables. The first one we will look at is the so-called “expected value” or EV for short. The EV is simply the probability weighted average of a random [...] Read more