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Uncertainty Wednesday: Dynamic versus Static
Albert Wenger – Jan 30, 2019
In Uncertainty Wednesday I have talked a lot about the danger of doing statistics without a model. Another big danger is ignoring dynamic processes and conducting static analyses instead. That is you may have an explanation, such as “a person’s [...] Read more
Getting over Privacy
Albert Wenger – Jan 28, 2019
I was overly optimistic when I thought I could resume excerpts from World After Capital today. Turns out the next section is on privacy and it needs major editing. So while I am working on that, here is the talk [...] Read more
In Support of a Wealth Tax
Albert Wenger – Jan 25, 2019
Senator Elizabeth Warren yesterday proposed a wealth tax. It is a way of dealing with the rising inequality issue that I also discuss in World After Capital. I propose a longer term way of getting to a similar place via [...] Read more
Uncertainty Wednesday: More on Sample Correlation under Fat Tails
Albert Wenger – Jan 23, 2019
Last Uncertainty Wednesday, I wrote about how sample correlations are not meaningful under fat tails. Today I want to continue this line of argument in the specific context of the claimed relationship between country IQ and GDP. There is strong [...] Read more
Reasons for Optimism
Albert Wenger – Jan 22, 2019
NOTE: I will resume posting excerpts from World After Capital next week. A couple of weeks ago I first tweeted about what gives people reasons for optimism and then wrote a post. Both of these were preparations for giving the [...] Read more
Uncertainty Wednesday: Misunderstanding Sample Correlation (Fat Tails)
Albert Wenger – Jan 16, 2019
Today’s Uncertainty Wednesday revisits a favorite topic of mine: correlation. I first wrote about the importance of thinking about correlation in modeling over 10 years ago, long before starting the Uncertainty Wednesday series (the reference to Excel is a giveaway). [...] Read more
World After Capital: Patents (Informational Freedom)
Albert Wenger – Jan 14, 2019
NOTE: Today’s excerpt from World After Capital continues the topic of Informational Freedom, discussing overreach in the patent system and offering prizes as an alternative mechanism. This is timely as the patent office has unfortunately issued new rules that will [...] Read more
On Crypto and Trust Minimization
Albert Wenger – Jan 11, 2019
What does it mean to trust someone? Usually, that person (or company, or technology) can take actions that share a bunch of characteristics: the action has a material impact on us, we cannot directly observe the action or judge its [...] Read more
Uncertainty Wednesday: Network Effects and Prices and Investment Returns, Oh My!
Albert Wenger – Jan 9, 2019
In today’s edition of Uncertainty Wednesday, we will look at how uncertainty in markets is highly dynamic. Something can be a sure thing for a while but not forever. There is a – potentially apocryphal – story about Ron Conway’s [...] Read more